Android’s throat is now exposed
Posted by CesareThis article from Business Insider got me started. Since I have to time to address potential fanboy arguments let’s go this way. For each time you think I am a fanboy I’ll think of you one of the following:
- troll
- user who has time to loose with lower quality devices/experiences
- user who likes to accumulate stress
Right now that Eric Schmit is promising that Android will soon beat iOS (whatever is the meaning of beating in this context), Android’s throat is getting more and more exposed. I can’t provide evidence but I started to feel a while ago that Android has found his way: more and more devices released and much buzz around the topic. But I always got in mind a few key aspects:
- Fragmentation: it is not easy at all to build an homogeneous experience across many different devices
- Too much fanfare about the number of devices activated per millisecond
- Nobody has ever revealed how many dollars has Google shared with developers
While the second is mainly related to marketing and the too much diffused tendency to reveal meaningless numbers, as a UX designer, developer and entrepreneur I am pretty sensitive to points #1 and #3. The first is pretty a technical reason: developers have to write more code and carry more stress with respect to iOS. The third point is pretty a mystery to me: Apple is known to be pretty secretive, especially when prototyping, but is proud to reveal key numbers to attract more on their platform. Rhetoric questions for developers/entrepreneurs: which market would you dive in? the one where you know the current volume or the one you don’t know anything about? While reflecting on this please don’t fall into the childish thought that “more devices more potential buyers”, unless you are a rookie. Just consider that you are making money by selling applications, and a higher number of devices does not imply a higher number of sales. The key value is the “willingness to buy”, and the internet is full of articles supporting the idea that iOS users are more prone to buy applications than androiders.
Getting back to the main point of this article the new announcement from Samsung, that won’t allow upgrades to the new version of the OS on old devices, is really exposing Android’s throat to attacks. While it was relatively easy to copy (umm … take inspiration from) iOS and its ecosystem, now I think that Android has reached a pretty unsolvable issue: the one of upgrades. People who bought an iPhone 3gs (released in June 2009) can still happily use it today with iOS5 and the iCloud. Can you find a similar example in the Android world? I doubt so. The reason is exquisitely technical: relatively young devices have not enough hardware power to run new versions of Android OS. It is just a physical limit, and I think there is nothing to discuss. My opinion is that it is due to lack of vision. One of the few upgradeable devices is the Galaxy S2, because it is a flagship product, and preventing an update on that would mean users migrating to other devices in a hurry.
I am not a fan of Microsoft but if you bought the first model of Windows Phone you can still happily run the latest version of the OS on that. This means being on track.
Besides technical reasons I think that there is an issue related to the approach. While it was possible to “decouple” hardware and software on the desktop (and Microsoft has built his empire on that) this is much less doable in the mobile world, where hardware power is limited.
Here are a few suggestions for Google, makers and users.
Makers
HTC, Samsung and colleagues should follow Amazon approach. The only way to attack a well established market are a few. You can work on:
- the best product
- the best solution
- the best price
Amazon, to attack the tablet market, is betting on the best price. I don’t see a simpler way for competitors to undermine Apple’s iOS ecosystem. Building the best product or solution would take a lot of time.
Google should close the gates, reorganize all the code to be more tightly coupled with hardware. They should put a lot of effort in rendering, demanding that (when possible) to the hardware. They should also devise crystalline rules about installation and updates. In 2012 I should not connect my phone to a computer to update the OS and I should not be forced to buy a new device to have the latest version of the OS. The recent acquisition of Motorola
is going toward that direction. If I were HTC or Samsung I’d be a bit worried, for I suspect new versions of Android will be super optimized for Motorola hardware. That’s the only solution I see for Android to resurrect.
Users
In the current situation, my suggestion is to go cheap. If you buy a $500 Android phone which is not OS-upgradeable it is not easy for you to afford a new purchase. If you have bought a $200 one, you have saved $300 (with respect to an iOS device) and you can think of using that money to buy a new model in one year.
Of course it is not easy to spot which models are upgradeable before you buy them (see crystalline rules above).
In general, we are told that a Google-approved Nexus device, should be eligible for upgrades (my addition: provided that hardware is powerful enough). So if you really like to buy an Android phone/tablet I strongly suggest to stick with those models or buy the new ones which will be released by Motorola in 2012.
Conclusion
While Google and friends are just chasing the highest number of activations per day, exposing his throat to competitors’ weapons, Microsoft and Apple are pointing on good experience, simplifying data migration and assuring compatibility with old models.
I’d like to conclude with a set of questions:
- where is all the “freedom” that Android supporters claim?
- do you realize that openness and (supposed) freedom, in the long run, are more costly than “closed-source” competitor solutions?
- do you see all the ifs you are going to face buying an android powered device?
- do you know that all this is due to a business model
- Not convinced yet? Have a look at this graph.
?
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Great post. This is the argument I always pose with friends, but they always fall into your three categories and deny it all.
You seem to forget the large group of users who are anti monopolistic and suspicious of Apple and its tax on every piece of content on their devices – thus would never go near anything that apple create.
There is also the problem of reliability- I know many users of icrap products that have simply got sick of taking them back-
I dont know anyone with HTC and Samsung devices that have anywhere near as many issues.
As far as updates go- if it works- it works- functionality is functionality- why are updates so very important?
if it plays video- it plays video
if it has gps -it has gps.
Its getting to the point where they are having to dream up new features that noone gives two shits about in order to get those with money to burn to buy them-
4g? how many iphone 4STGT4XPplus users or whatever its called live somewhere 4g is going to be available before about 2014 anyhow.
Ive done it agin havent I?
fallen for a fanboy propaganda piece thats pretending to compare these products fairly.
BTW have you used windows phone 7?
its shit.
I for one will never buy apple on priciple as they tried to stop me getting and delayed my beautiful SAmsung 10″ with another one of their frivolous and never ending patent cases.
Money for Apple means money for lawyers and everyone knows lawyers are wankers.
I think Eric Schmidt is just saying the obvious when he says that Android will soon beat iOS. Android’s market share is now higher than that of Apple, and not to mention that the Android market is growing at an impressive speed!
@tarquin I am not comparing products. I am comparing experiences. I can buy a new Apple phone and after 20 minutes have on it the exact same content and settings I had on the old one.
When that will be possible on ANY android device without issues I will review my opinions.
@Itoctopus then how do you explain that the most mobile traffic still comes from iOS devices?
OK, where do I start?
Firstly the fragmentation problem is not new. Sony don’t really release updates for their Android devices at all, for example.
Second, it hardly matters. Developers can and do make their apps available to older versions of Android. We can see the percentage breakdown in the market and make commercial decisions accordingly.
Third, android is open source and we can easily install different versions of the OS just by using cyanogenmod or other free builds. My 2.5 year old HTC hero is running the same OS as my new Samsung GS2.
Fourth, another freedom is to have an android device in whatever form factor the customer prefers while keeping their environment and apps the same. A physical keyboard is really important for a lot of people.
Fifth, iOS. My father upgraded his iphone 3g to a 4s last month because apparently no new apps are available for it anymore. Fragmentation. He spent about 5 days trying to get it to work berore I arrived for xmas and helped because bloody iTunes wouldn’t update to the latest version on his PC and it seems you need a computer capable of running the latest iTunes to even activate a new phone! I dare you to tell me that’s not insane. Go on.
Basically Android is Windows for phones. Works everywhere, wildly popular, good enough. Apple will once again take their traditional minority position in the market.
You want proof, here it is. My Motorola Cliq (original not Cliq 2) was purchased in November 2009 with Android 1.5. I waited for a painfully long time before they released Android 2.0, but it was a hack job and was not OTA. Finally some great people started making their own ROMs for the Cliq. I am now running Android 2.3.7, which is later than ROMs on newly released phones. Many are still using 2.3.5. No Cliq is NOT slow, so its older hardware is NOT an issue.
Here was your comment: “Can you find a similar example in the Android world? I doubt so.” Doubt all you want, but it is real. You are a biased blogger.
http://modmymobile.com/forums/548-motorola-cliq-roms/563497-rom-superosr-2-1-1-motorola-cliq-android-2-3-7-a.html
@tim
I should have mentioned that I know some upgrades are *technically* doable. Probably I should have stressed more that they are not doable by anybody. I don’t imagine a plumber or a masseuse typing commands in a shell to upgrade an OS. Do you?
Also, how can you trust the source which released the ROM, when it is not the manufacturer or the carrier?
I agree with you, some experience are broken when you use an iDevice with Windows.
As for minority position, I think this is what makes Apple great: less stuff well done.
@mike
I really thank you, for “being biased” is a compliment to me. Quick questions: how can you trust the rom you downloaded? How was the upgrade process? Point and click or type in a shell? In your opinion is the process doable by anybody (a lawyer, a cook, a salesman, your aunt)?
You can trust the OS you install if it came from a reputable source and/or it’s open source and code is visible to a whole bunch of knowledgeable people who’d definitely sound the alarm if something dodgy were to happen. See: Linux.
Accepted, wiping a phone and reinstalling the OS isn’t easily accomplished by everybody – but that’s exactly the same situation as on a computer. Incidentally I know a plumber who’d certainly be fine with doing that (and an accountant, and a receptionist, and a DJ, and a philosopher – but not a masseuse).
If you’re happy with Apple being in the minority position (and I totally agree, they excel as the Mercedes of the industry) you should be pretty relaxed about Google taking the lead. :)
@tim Indeed, I am helping the “enemy” to improve from his errors and create a better experience. I am just wondering, since they have already copied a good deal of stuff, why don’t they copy that as well?
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